Sunday Example

 

Just to show you
the power behind the method, here’s a few examples of horses
today that don’t fully meet the full 40% price drop, but have
dropped from their forecast position (from 3rd or 4th favourite
for example to opening as the favourite or joint fav) along with
a drop in price.

Ayr 2.10

BETTING
FORECAST: 
5/2 Next
Edition, 11/4 Diamond Geezah, 3/1 Cotton Spirit,
4/1 Little Miss Take, 16/1 Goldenveil, 25/1Arctic Cat,
33/1 Golden Blaze.

As you can see above, the opening price of
Diamond Geezah is 2 and it opened as the favourite (the price on
the left is the 1st opening price) – if you compare that with the
Betting Forecast above that you’ll see Diamond Geezah was
forecast as 2nd fav at 11/4 so although it’s only dropped -27%,
the original forecast favourite Next Edition opened a full 1
point (+29%) over its forecast price.

This is not an “official” method
selection as it’s only dropped -27%, but it’s strongly indicated
that Diamond Geezah was fancied to run a good race where Next
Edition wasn’t. Result: Diamond Geezah won 7/4

Ayr 2.40

BETTING
FORECAST: 
11/4 Mr
Lu, 7/2 Prime Circle, 9/2 Spavento, 11/2 Signore
Momento, 13/2 Barnstorm, 13/2 Stellite, 12/1Hosanna,
20/1 Santiago Atitlan, 66/1 Def

Above, 2 horses open as joint favs; Spavento and
Signore Momento both with opening shows of 4/1. Compare that with
their betting forecas prices above you’ll see that Spavento has
opened just a touch shorter in price with a difference of -11% –
Signore Momento has opened -27% shorter than it’s forecast price
and has dropped from 4th forecast fav to opening as joint fav.

Again, Signore Momento is not an “official”
selection with only a -27% drop, but it’s indicated a strongly
fancied horse. Result: Won 4/1

Ayr 3.10

BETTING
FORECAST: 
7/2 Saving
Grace
, 4/1 Grand
Diamond
, 9/2 Maybe
I Wont
, 6/1 Wrongwayround,
8/1 Red
Skipper
, 9/1Casino
Night
, 12/1 Papa´s
Princess
, 12/1 Social
Rhythm
, 14/1 Bed
Fellow
, 25/1 Marillos
Proterras
, 33/1 Primo
Way
, 33/1 Suburbia,
100/1 Claudia
May
.

Both Red Skipper and Grand Diamond open with a
37.5% price drop from their forecast prices, where the original
forecast fav Saving Grace opens “unfancied” as 3rd fav
with a price increase. As there’s 2 fancied horses here you’ll
probably want to leave alone but Red Skipper coming from 5th
forecast fav opening as the 2nd fav is the stronger of the two.
Result Red Skipper Won 11/4

Ayr 4.40BETTING
FORECAST: 
9/2 Dies
Solis
, 11/2 North
Shadow
, 6/1 Drumpellier,
6/1 Firetrap,
6/1 Weetentherty,
7/1 Classlin,
7/1Monte
Mayor One
, 10/1 Reach
For The Sky
, 16/1 Chookie
Avon
, 20/1 Hot
Rod Mamma
.

Dies
Solis opens with a
50%
price drop so is a good strong selection. Result 2nd 15/8
[Betfair place price paid 1.55]

Brighton
4.00
BETTING
FORECAST: 7/2 Lady
Florence
,
9/2 Cordell,
9/2 Fire
King
, 13/2 Prince
Valentine
, 7/1 Inquisitress,
20/1 Easy
Wonder
, 25/1 Libertino,
33/1 Mr
Loire
.
Fire King
opens fav
-44%
from 3rd fav. Beaten into 2nd place. Place price paying 1.44

Market Rasen 2.20

BETTING
FORECAST: 5/2 Ruby
Isabel
,
3/1 Decision,
5/1 Blue
Eyed Eloise
, 7/1 Avanos,
10/1 Piccolo
Pride
, 14/1 Coeur
Brule
, 16/1 Galley
Slave
, 20/1 Vogarth.

Avanos catches the eye here. Opening at 4/1 -43%
and from forecast as 4th fav opening as the 2nd fav. Nice strong
selection. Result: Won 9/4

Market
Rasen 3.20
BETTING
FORECAST: 4/1 Benmadigan
4/1 Choctaw
Nation
,
5/1 Bold
Policy
, 6/1 Darksideofthemoon,
8/1 Tout
Regulier
, 10/1 Deadline,
10/1 Muntami,
10/1 Sea
Cliff
, 12/1 Goldan
Jess
, 20/1 Tifoso.
Darksideofthemoon
opening as fav from 4th in the betting forecast and a
-54%
drop in price indicates a very strong selection. Unfortunately
was pulled up with a problem. Result: lost

Market Rasen 4.50

BETTING
FORECAST: 4/1 Morenito
4/1 Wee
Forbees
,
6/1 Turbo
Shandy
, 7/1 Silver
Dollars
, 8/1 Ormus,
10/1 Nesnaas,
10/1Power
Of Attorney
, 12/1 The
Randy Bishop
, 16/1 Peak
Seasons
, 20/1 Skiddaw
Jones
, 33/1 Bythehokey.

Nesnaas opening with a drop of -55%
from 6th in the betting forecast opening as 2nd fav is another
strong selection. Result: 2nd 4/1 place price paying 2.44

Summary

Not a brilliant day with five selections with
over a 40% opening show drop in price from their betting forecast
price. Unlucky with three 2nd places, but 4 in the money out of 5
is not too bad.

2 strong selections not quite making it into the
“official rules” of a 40% drop, both winning would have
made this a very profitable day. Once you’ve more experience
you’ll be backing these types of selections too. The most
important criteria for these is the other (original forecast
favs) horses unfancied and out in price.

System 2SunTues

 

Leave a Reply