I’ve had a lot of requests from readers of my newsletter asking how I compile odds for any given race using the LR rating on the Form Ratings racecards.
Here’s a lowdown on how it works in full so you can try it out yourself.
I’m going to use the LR rating as I find it works quite well – but note that you don’t have to use the LR rating.
You could just as easily use SPD (Speed), HRS (Horse Race Score) and FRN (Form Ratings Number) or any other set of rating at that! (Try it out and see what gives you the best results)
You can see the full racecard for the race I’m breaking down below…
Step one = convert the LR column into odds. (You can do this for any column)
To do this add up all the figures in the LR column.
In this example above we get: 512
Once you’ve done that do the following calculation for each to convert the probabilities into odds;
So for the first one in image below would be (1/0.16)-1
Give or take bit of rounding which excel does automatically..
The one’s in green represent ‘good value’ – that doesn’t mean they will definitely win. Just that taking those odds for that horse should, over time land you in profit.
Step two = compare to the odds that the bookies are offering.
Where the bookie odds are higher than our odds we have found value.
How to bet on these horses?
Well what I’d probably do in this case is one of two things.
1. Just back Big Lachie as a single
2. Dutch bet Pink Flamingo, All Back To Mine & Archimedes (IRE)
Of course there are a lot of combinations but that’s just down to personal preference.
Ultimately the main thing is that you have made a decision based on concrete information rather than just gut feeling! ?
To fully decide I’d have a quick look at comments on racing post website or sporting life – but not pay too much attention to them!
If you decide to go for the dutch bet option this dutching calculator tool will help you calculate the stakes.
Now you’re probably thinking, ‘how did it play out’ – as you can see it played out almost perfectly (depending on how you chose to back the selections). Of course this doesn’t happen every time but it’s certainly a good example of how you can use the ratings to identify a value bet based on sound logic.
If you’re lazy then this kind of technique is probably not for you – a much speedier way to get some solid selections is to just join Form Ratings Gold and use the Smart Selections.
With that said, I’m sure some of you are statto, number crunchers who also enjoy taking a similar approach to this!
If you’d like to get access to all the racecards each day so you can try out strategies like this click here for all the details.